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| Monthly Chart |
This
is a monthly chart of Crudeoil/INR, I have tried to mark an already
known pattern on it. The pattern is of a zigzag. The EWP guideline of
channeling suggests that often corrections are contained by two parallel
lines, by virtue of this guideline we can anticipate how Crudeoil may
perform in coming days. This scenario matches well with the rising
dollar scenario, which will cause the commodities to fall, but the only
hitch is as dollar appreciates and Crudeoil falls, so will the INR. How
far this fall in INR helps the cause of Crudeoil in India, I cannot
tell. But if we forget all this economic jabber, and just concentrate on
the patterns, we can see that, if the envisioned zigzag pattern is
correct, and the top in wave (B) is already in place, we are in for a
severe correction in oil prices in India.
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| Weekly Chart |
The
weekly chart above shows that the wave (B) was a double zigzag, and the
last leg of this {W}-{X}-{Y} correction, is over. We have already
traded below the wave [4] of C of {Y} of (B) in wave I. Also what has followed it is a clear
3 wave corrective move, as shown in the daily chart below. But is this 3
wave move the complete correction, or a part of a flat correction,
remains to be seen. The depth of this correction is already 61.8% of the
wave I, so either the correction is over or we may have a flat wave II.
In any case I feel Crudeoil/INR may be very close to a resistance zone,
between 5145-5180. We should see prices easing down from here, if this
expected fall accelerates downward, we may well be in wave III of {I} of
(C).
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| Daily Chart |
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