Saturday, September 1, 2012

USDINR - Elliott Wave Analysis

Monthly Close Only Chart

This is a monthly chart of USDINR. I have tried to cover the latest impulsive pattern on this chart. Which started way back in 1972 around 7 odd levels. Rupee has depreciated consistently and has now reached the levels of 55.50. The price action in the top right corner has followed the channel (blue color), pretty well, which is generally the characteristic of corrective waves. USDINR may be in corrective patten in wave [IV], namely expanded or irregular flat, in that case we are sure to retest the low made by the terminus of wave (A) of [IV] which comes around 39 odd levels. But if we are in an impulsive wave [V] as shown in by the alternate count, we should break out above the upper channel boundary and head much higher.

Weekly Close Only Chart
The daily chart above shows the internal count for both the scenarios. The corrective wave [IV] scenario is my preferred count so far, and is shown by labels without "?" mark after them. And the wave [V] scenario which is my alternate count so far, is shown by wave labels followed by "?" mark.
The first likely support band comes on the 52.70-51.70 range. Below that we may test 49.50-48.50 range. A break below 49.50-48.50 will increase the probability of  corrective wave [IV] scenario considerably.

Note: Since we are tracking the price movements of very large fractals namely Monthly and Weekly time frames, the targets are huge as well. this is an attempt at analyzing USDINR using EWP. Regular short term updates on USDINR, will be covered on trading days.