Tuesday, September 17, 2013


Hi Friends,

In my last post around 5200 I mentioned about a Fierce Rally to 5800 and higher based on the observation of Elliott Wave Pattern and the implication of similar pattern in 2011. Within no time Nifty Rallied to 5957. It Almost retrace 78.6% of the Entire Fall from 6229-5118. So what next?

As mentioned in my last post this Fierce Rally seems to be a corrective Bear Market Rally. As per my preferred count Nifty seem to have completed (x) Wave at 5957. Now it shall resume the downtrend and may witness a Huge Sell off sub 5000 in next 2-3 months in (y) Wave.
Nifty has Trendline and Fibonacci Resistance at 5991 and upside if any looks limited. Current pattern is similar to 2011. RSI is showing Hidden Divergence which is early indication of possible Trend Reversal. In 2011 too Nifty Retraced around 78.6% of the previous Fall in (w) Wave and Developed Hidden Divergence on RSI around 4945 in April 2011. Later Nifty fell badly towards 4700 in (y) Wave till August 2011. So we may witness similar Sell off to 4700-4800 till end of December 2013.

In Short Term a Close below 5815-5795 will indicate a Trend Reversal. As per Wave Equality Nifty is expected to fall to 4845 by end of December 2013 considering the Top at 5957. In case of Wave Extension Nifty may witness Sell off to 4545 or 4420 or even lower.

Current view will be invalidated only if Nifty closes above 6060-6090. A close above 6060-6090 will change the short term view. Still in Long Term I would stick to my Bearish views for Market. The Broad Market has already topped out in Jan 2013. But the Index is not reflecting the true picture. Index is trading at Highs due to few heavy weight stocks which are comparatively trading at the Highs. But soon these stocks will start tumbling too. In a year ahead the Banks, I.T., FMCG & Heath-care stocks are expected to fall from 40-70%. Which will drag Index lower.

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.


Dean Market Profile said...

Fractals!!! Great Job!!!

dinesh said...

May we have your view now as today Nifty closed above the levels. are we in for new highs somewhere around 6420. or even more. your analysis does it base on some timelines. as the present rise from 5118 is in a much shorter time from fall to that level from 6093. The momentum seems to carry to new highs.