NIFTY - LONG TERM EW ANALYSIS

Hi Friends,

NIFTY

In my previous post I mentioned that the fall from 6415-6130 seems to be 1st leg of the Down Trend. However, Bulls protected 6130 and Nifty bounced back to 6356. This move has taken more time than expected. Generally Diagonals are retraced in 1/3rd or 1/2 time. Hence, the rise from 5118-6415 may not be a Diagonal but a Zigzag. Where C leg from 5700 is forming an Ending Diagonal. And Nifty seems to be in 'e' of C.

Currently it's not clear whether 'e' truncated at 6356 or still running. Until Nifty holds 6190 there is a possibility of one more high towards 6486 in 'e' of C of the Final (Z) leg from 5118. Break below 6190 may be indication of 'e' truncation and start of the Down Trend. And break below 6139 would further confirm the downside. Once the Down Trend is confirmed I'm looking for target of 5700-5100 and lower in next 3-4 months.

NIFTY - LONG TERM

Since the structure of Diagonal is almost invalid now, the alternate Bullish structure is also getting invalid. Hence, I would stick to my Long Term Bearish Views. Nifty is in a Sideways Bear Market since 2008. And it is likely to continue the Bear Run till Early 2015. According to it's Long Term Cycle Nifty may drop as low as 3600 in a year ahead.


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.