Friday, July 27, 2012

Crudeoil / INR - Elliott Wave Analysis

Monthly Chart

 This is a monthly chart of Crudeoil/INR, I have tried to mark an already known pattern on it. The pattern is of a zigzag. The EWP guideline of channeling suggests that often corrections are contained by two parallel lines, by virtue of this guideline we can anticipate how Crudeoil may perform in coming days. This scenario matches well with the rising dollar scenario, which will cause the commodities to fall, but the only hitch is as dollar appreciates and Crudeoil falls, so will the INR. How far this fall in INR helps the cause of Crudeoil in India, I cannot tell. But if we forget all this economic jabber, and just concentrate on the patterns, we can see that, if the envisioned zigzag pattern is correct, and the top in wave (B) is already in place, we are in for a severe correction in oil prices in India.
Weekly Chart
The weekly chart above shows that the wave (B) was a double zigzag, and the last leg of this {W}-{X}-{Y} correction, is over. We have already traded below the wave [4] of C of {Y} of (B) in wave I. Also what has followed it is a clear 3 wave corrective move, as shown in the daily chart below. But is this 3 wave move the complete correction, or a part of a flat correction, remains to be seen. The depth of this correction is already 61.8% of the wave I, so either the correction is over or we may have a flat wave II. In any case I feel Crudeoil/INR may be very close to a resistance zone, between 5145-5180. We should see prices easing down from here, if this expected fall accelerates downward, we may well be in wave III of {I} of (C).
Daily Chart

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