Wednesday, July 25, 2012

USDINR - Elliott WAve Analysis

Hourly Chart
USDINR was expected to form a corrective pattern, in wave (b), and it has progressed beautifully so far. We thought that the pattern was completed at the 55.93 level on 12th July, but it was actually a part of a flat correction in wave {b} of (b). Now it is also possible that we may start a new up move in wave (5) as a part of our alternate count.  But I always go for the most conservative count, and use trailing stop losses to remain in the trend, as long as it continues. So we have th equality target, i.e. wave {c}=={a} at 56.60. Also fibo retracements of the preceding wave (a) comes in the range of 56.12=56.60. So as we were expecting the prices to trade in this range since a long time now, it has actually happened. The most important thing to do now is to track the internal wave patterns of this wave {c}, which has to be an impulse, and try to find the exact levels for this impulse to terminate. Because what will follow this corrective up move is an impulsive down move in wave (c). Wave (c) being the third wave it is often very severe, hence a good opportunity.
Below I have attached a daily chart, which shows my preferred and alternate counts. Also it shows the possible target area for wave (c) in roughly 54-53 range.
I will be tracking the patterns closely, and will alert when a trading opportunity presents itself.

Daily Chart
Note: This is my first post on the 5WAVES blog, I thank Saranya Vj for providing me with this opportunity to share my views on currencies / pairs on his blog. I also write on my own blog, by the name Trade Elliott Wave, and I track Indian indices and stocks on it.

Trade Elliott Wave