NIFTY LONG TERM WAVE COUNT

Hi Friends,

In my last post I was expecting a Rally from 5830-50 to New High 6300. However, Market has Invalidated that Analysis as Nifty has breached below 61.8% of the Apr-May Rally.. So looking at the Magnitude of this Fall, I have changed my view now. In my view Nifty seem to have already made it's Long Term Top at 6229 & no New High will be seen in 2013 again.

NIFTY - Weekly

As discussed the entire Rally from 4531 is a Corrective Pullback of the 2011 Fall. The Entire 2011 Fall was 13 months Channeled Corrective Action. As against this the Rally consumed around 17 months and Retraced 94% of 2011 Fall. Which is considered as Slow Retracement with Waves Overlapping. As per Traditional Technical Analysis it is Rising Wedge On Nifty. This Pattern has Highly Bearish Implication for the year ahead. In my view Nifty will Retest 4500 or may even Fall sub 4000 in Next 15-20 months. I believe this Entire Fall may Develop as an Impulse or Zigzag Corrective. As projected in the above Chart.

For short term it appears to be Island Reversal on Nifty. However, there is not enough evidence for Trend Reversal.

NIFTY - Daily

(I) For Short term Nifty needs to break above 5869 to confirm Trend Reversal. If Nifty manages to hold 5738-54 & break 5869 we can Expect move towards 6088 followed by larger Fall to 5370 later..  And so on..(This will be similar to 2011 Pattern)

(II) Failure to hold 5730 will add more pressure on Nifty and it is likely to head lower to 5645-5630.. Followed by Bounce back to 5820-50 and then Fall back to 5340.. And so on..

When Mkt gives an obvious message, you must listen to it. Entire Rally from 4531 is Corrective Rally which will be followed by Larger Fall. Those who understand Elliott Wave can understand the Implication of this Pattern..

Rest of 2013 looks much more Bearish.. And hence I would like to maintain my Bearish stance for 2013. 

Will keep posting on short Term moves from time to time..

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.