Monday, October 7, 2013

COMMODITIES

Hi Friends,

Today I'm posting my EW Counting on some Global Commodities.

CRUDE MCX
CRUDE MCX
MCX Crude has been consistently in uptrend since early 2009. It made all time high near Rs.7800 in Aug 2013. However, from EW perspective this entire rally looks corrective move. This entire move looks to be a Expanded Flat (B) wave which looks complete near Rs.7800. An Impulsive Fall in Flat (C) could take CRUDE back to 2009 lows near Rs.2000. 

CRUDE WTI
WTI CRUDE
WTI Crude has been consistently in uptrend since early 2009. However, from EW perspective this entire rally looks corrective move. This entire move looks to be a (B) wave which still has upside near $115. An Impulsive Fall in (C) could take CRUDE back to 2009 lows near $35.

GOLD MCX
GOLD MCX
MCX Gold has been consistently in uptrend over past few years. It seems to be in its Extended 3rd wave. Currently it seems to be in (v)th of 3rd which might be extending. The downside looks limited to Rs.27000. Post this correction Gold is likely to resume the uptrend and head towards Rs.40000 in next 2 years.

GOLD USD
GOLD-USD
Gold-USD has been consistently in downtrend ever since it made a top in (V)th wave near $1920 in Sept 2011. Currently it seems to be in complex correction or triple zigzag of which x seems to be in play. This corrective up move in x wave might take Gold to $1500. Post completion a move in Z wave can take Gold near $1030 or worst case towards wave (IV) low near $730.

SILVER MCX
SILVER MCX
MCX Silver seem to have completed the huge correction in Wave 4 near Rs.38500 in June 2013. With the sharp up move it seem to have resumed the uptrend in 5th wave which might be extending. The downside looks limited to Rs.45000. Post this correction Silver is likely to resume the uptrend and head towards Rs.80000 and higher to Rs.1,00,000 in next 3-4 years.

SILVER USD
SILVER-USD
Silver-USD has been consistently in downtrend ever since it made a top in (V)th wave near $50 in Apr 2011. Currently it seems to be in complex correction or triple zigzag of which x seems to be in play. This corrective up move in x wave might take Silver to $27. Post completion a move in Z wave can take Silver near $12 or worst case towards wave (IV) low near $8.


Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.

2 comments:

Karthi Keyan said...

Sir I am new one for learning EW past 6months.Ur always Great Count,Thanking U...

Rajesh said...

sir I am very fond of your analysis. But this time at one place you are very bullish on MCX Gold & MCX Silver but at the same time very bearish in Dollar terms in both the commodities. How this irony. Pls put some light on this.