Tuesday, November 5, 2013


Hi Friends,

Today I'm Posting my Wave Counts on Few Indices which might be ready for Huge Trend Reversal.

As mentioned in my previous post Nifty seem to be in Huge Ending Structure from Last 2 years from 4531. Whether Ending Diagonal or Complex Correction the labels don't matter until we know its just a Corrective Rally. Currently it seems to be in (E) or (Z) wave of this Structure. And this Rally is about to die.

As per my reading Nifty is close to completing final 'e' leg of this Final (E) or (Z) wave which might end near 6355.  As mentioned in my previous post we achieved the target of 6334 till Nov 1st week i.e. till Diwali. The upside from here looks very limited and Nifty may face stiff Resistance at 6355-6420. Upside if any shall be used to exit longs. Strictly avoid fresh longs at current levels. 

Post completion of this Ending Structure we might witness a Huge Downside back to 4500/4000 or lower in a year ahead. Whenever we get the evidence of the end of this move I would be looking for immediate downside to 5690 till 1st week of Dec 2013 and 5090 till Jan 2014 and 4760 till March 2014.

After testing the Life Time Highs in May 2013 near 13400 Bank-Nifty fell sharply almost back to 2011 lows near 8400. It's a clear 5 wave decline which might be marked as wave 1 or A. Currently Bank-Nifty is close to completing wave 2 or B and may face resistance at 11800. Post completion of this corrective pullback it is expected to resume the down trend. As per wave equality Bank-Nifty may Fall upto 6700 in wave 3 or C till March 2014.

BSE Auto Index is at Life Time Highs. However, The Rally from 2011 lows lacks the characteristics of an Impulse. Index seems to be in Expanding Formation. Where X wave retraced more than 1.618 of W. Currently X wave seems to be in completion and has limited upside to 12400. Post Completion Index may Decline in Y wave down back to 2011 lows near 8000.

Index making New Highs week over weeks. However, RSI Negative Divergence is suggesting Possible Trend Change. Investors may get shock in next wave down. Index may drop to 7680 in a year ahead.

Thanks & Regards,

Harsh Dixit.


nano gowtham said...

Hi harsh,
May I know why the index continuously topping out every 4 or 5 months.we had 6111 in Jan,again 100+ points ie, 6230 in may,again 100+ points ie,6342 in November.
So how to confirm that we have a start of bearish market.
Also pls help me with my wave count.
4531-5629 wave a,
5629-4770 wave b,
4770-6111 wave c,
6111-5477 wave d,
5477-6230 wave e(truncated failure wave)
Corrective wave
6230-5118 wave a,
5118-6342 wave b(expanded flat),
6342-???? Wave c ?????